March Madness is here, and with it comes the chaos of bracket season. In this breakdown, Rob Cortner, sports analyst from The Starting Lineup dives deep into teams in the tournament—highlighting key players, strengths, weaknesses, and realistic ceilings for each program. This isn’t just about picks—it’s a tool to help you make smarter decisions as you build your bracket, whether you’re chasing bragging rights or trying to win your pool. Use Rob’s analysis as your guide… and then make it your own.
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls of all ages, it is time for the greatest postseason in all of sports. Everyone has a tactic, formula, or random art to their bracket and that is what makes this event extra special, is it gives you the fan a chance to be a part of the action and follow every matchup. We at ESPN Winchester, are of course going to give you an insight to our picks, but better yet, we are going to deep dive every single one of the 68 teams in the field. We want to give you the tools to be able to make the best pick for every matchup even if you disagree with Chewy, Joe, and I (which is likely a good thing), remember this is your masterpiece. Use our “bracketology” and make it YOUR own March Madness! Good luck!
EAST REGION
- Duke Blue Devils
Record: 32-2 ACC Regular Season and Tournament Champs
Quad1: 17-2 Quad2: 6-0 Quad3: 2-0 Quad4: 7-0
Key Wins: Florida, Michigan St., Michigan Key Losses: North Carolina
Player to watch: Center, Cameron Boozer 22.5points/game, 10.2rebounds/game
Head Coach: Jon Scheyer 121-24 record, 8-3 NCAA Tournament Record, 1Final Four
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 4 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Notes: On paper, the most talented team in the country. They were faced with some down to the wire games in the ACC Tournament which I think will help them in the big dance. However, I am worried the ACC conference play has not prepared this team for the hurdles of the postseason.
Ceiling: NCAA Champs Floor: Sweet 16
- Connecticut Huskies
Record: 29-5 Quad1: 7-3 Quad2: 11-1 Quad3: 6-1 Quad4: 5-0
Key Wins: Florida, Illinois, St. John’s Key Losses: Creighton, Marquette
Player to watch: Center, Tarris Reed Jr. 13.7points/game 8.7rebounds/game
Head Coach: Dan Hurley 316-174, 15-5 NCAA Tournament Record, 2 National Championships, 2 Final Fours
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 30 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Notes: This is not the dominant Huskie team that we are used to seeing Dan Hurley put out. Offensively they turn the ball over often and have been inconsistent from the 3-point line. They had some nice wins earlier in the season but Marquette loss late and the pounding they took from Rick Pitino’s St. John’s, have me trending away from this team.
Ceiling: Elite 8 Floor: Second Round
- Michigan State Spartans
Record 25-7
Quad1:10-6 Quad2: 4-1 Quad3: 7-0 Quad4: 4-0
Key Wins: Illinois, Purdue, Arkansas Key Losses: Minnesota
Player to watch: Guard Jeremy Fears Jr. 15.7points/game 9.2assists/game
Head Coach: Tom Izzo 762-309 record, 54-23 NCAA Tournament Record, 1 National Championship, 8 Final Fours
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 24 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Notes: If I could pick a team that was the most fortunate in terms of a bracket draw, Michigan State would be my pick, I absolutely love their draw. A potential second round matchup between South Florida/Louisville and a potential Sweet 16 matchup between UConn, I don’t think any of those teams will matchup well with the physicality the Spartans bring, especially down low with Jaxon Kohler.
Ceiling: Final 4 Floor: Sweet 16
- Kansas Jayhawks
Record: 23-10
Quad1: 9-9 Quad2: 7-1 Quad3: 4-0 Quad4: 3-0
Key Wins: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Tennessee Key Losses: UCF, Arizona State, West Virgina
Player to watch: Darryn Peterson 19.8points/game 4.4rebounds/game
Head Coach: Bill Self 840-272 record, 57-24 NCAA Tournament Record, 2 National Championships, 4 Final Fours.
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 57 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Notes: What are you going to get out of Darryn Peterson? Likely the number 1 overall pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, and we know the talent is there with him, and for the rest of the team for that matter. But the player to take them to an elite level is Peterson and his many minor lingering injuries have been a problem this season, as in his high school career. So, does Kansas have the talent to make the final 4? Yes. Am I big on them doing it? No, I just don’t think their offense is consistent enough without Peterson 100% in this thing. I also, think their defensive ranking is misleading due to their lack of ability to turn you over, on ball defending though, one of the best in the country.
Ceiling: Final 4 Floor: Second Round
- St. John’s Red Storm
Record: 28-6 Big East Regular Season and Tournament Champs
Quad1: 5-5 Quad2: 11-0 Quad3: 9-1 Quad4: 3-0
Key Wins: UConn(twice), Villanova Key Losses: Auburn, Providence
Player to watch: Zuby Ejiofor 16.3points/game 7.1rebounds/game
Head Coach: Rick Pitino 789-314, 54-19 NCAA Tournament Record, 2 National Championships, 6 Final Fours
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 44 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Notes: This team has your old-school, smash mouth Big East identity. They are big and long and are literally just a headache to try and score on, especially with an officiating crew that is going to let them play. This is by far the best team Pitino has had since at St. John’s and I know they will likely have to get past Kansas first, but I really think they match up well with Duke with their style of play and unless Duke has a great game shooting the 3 ball, I think the Red Storm will be able to have a very good chance to beat the Blue Devils in a dogfight. Oziyah Sellers doesn’t get a lot of credit because their bigs are so good but he can beat you off the dribble and get hot from 3 as well.
Ceiling: Final Four Floor: Sweet 16
- Louisville Cardinals
Record: 23-10
Quad1: 8-10 Quad2: 4-0 Quad3: 4-0 Quad4: 7-0
Key Wins: Kentucky, NC State Key Losses: Stanford
Player to watch: Guard Ryan Conwell 18.7points/game 4.8rebounds/game
Head Coach: Pat Kelsey 311-140 Record, 0-5 Tournament Record.
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 19 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Notes: I really liked this team early, they are an offensive juggernaut when Mikel Brown is fully healthy, unfortunately, we are not sure that he is. On top of that, I just think this team is soft like most of the teams in the ACC, unless they get hot shooting, I don’t see many scenarios that they get past the second weekend.
Ceiling: Sweet 16 Floor: First Round
- UCLA Bruins
Record: 23-11
Quad1: 5-8 Quad2: 5-3 Quad3: 6-0 Quad4 7-0
Key Wins: Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State Key Losses: Minnesota, California
Player to watch: Forward Tyler Bilodeau 17.6points/game 5.6rebounds/game
Head Coach: Mick Cronin 546-246 12-11 NCAA Tournament Record, 1 Final Four
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 22 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 53
Notes: Is it just me or is the modern UCLA a team that has an average year during the season and overachieves in March, because that’s where this team is trending. Mick Cronin’s presser clips keep us entertained through the year and if you just listen to him, you would never think twice about this team. However, with a win against Illinois and Nebraska to close the season and a conference tourney upset over Michigan State, the Bruins are worth taking a ponder on. They’re senior heavy, led by PG Donovan Dent, they really take care of the basketball, and can take over a game from 3point range. Can their interior defense match up good enough against a potential second round matchup with Tom Izzo’s Spartans?
Ceiling: Sweet 16 Floor: Second Round
- Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 21-12
Quad1: 5-11 Quad2: 4-1 Quad3:6-0 Quad4: 6-0
Key Wins: Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa Key Losses: Pittsburg, Washington
Player to watch: Guard Bruce Thorton 20.2points/game 3.9assists/game
Head Coach: Jake Diebler 46-30 Record, 0-0 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 17 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 54
Notes: Bruce Thorton is one of the better guards off the dribble in the BigTen and mixed in with two-way SF Devin Royal who can really battle down low, this team has the tools to make it past TCU. Their next potential opponent would be Duke and they just don’t have the fire power or interior defense down low to make it past them to the second weekend. A nice team but would have to have a lot fall into place to make a run.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Texas Christian Horned Frogs (TCU)
Record: 22-11
Quad1: 6-7 Quad2: 7-2 Quad3: 2-1 Quad4: 7-1
Key Wins: Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa State Key Losses: New Orleans, Utah
Player to watch: Forward David Punch 14.3points/game 6.7rebounds/game
Head Coach: Jamie Dixon 526-260 record, 14-15 NCAA Tournament Record.
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 81 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Notes: If you’ve listened to the show recently, you know I have had TCU on my sleeper list, they had beaten and went toe-to-toe with some great teams. They have the ability to muddy up the water and drag opponents in their with them and if they get past Ohio State, I certainly think they can do that with Duke. The question is, who is going to help David Punch and Xavier Edmonds with the scoring load? If Jayden Pierre can find his shot from behind the perimeter, a Horned Frog run is in the cards.
Ceiling: Sweet 16 Floor: First Round
- University of Central Florida Knights (UCF)
Record: 21-11
Quad1: 5-8 Quad2: 6-3 Quad3: 4-0 Quad4: 6-0
Key Wins: Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU Key Losses: Oklahoma State(twice), West Virgina
Player to watch: Guard Riley Kugel 14.4points/game 2.5assists/game
Head Coach: Johnny Dawkins 345-246 record, 3-2 NCAA Tournament Record.
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 40 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 101
Notes: Themus Fulks, transfer from Milwaukee, could be a name to watch. This team overall throughout the season has sort of done what they were supposed to do as far as W/Ls, they get hot from 3 at times, however, their interior offense and defense is not going to be good enough for this team to go on a run. Their coach, Johnny Dawkins, was a former 1st round NBA draft pick from Duke and we know he can coach so it’s not impossible for the Knights to make a run, just not likely.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- South Florida Bulls (USF)
Record: 25-8 American Conference Regular Season and Tournament Champs
Quad1: 2-3 Quad2: 6-2 Quad3: 7-3 Quad4: 9-0
Key Wins: Utah State Key Losses: UAB, Temple
Player to watch: Guard Wes Enis 16.8points/game 2.5assists/game
Head Coach: Bryan Hodgson 70-36 record, 0-0 NCAA Tournament Record.
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 61 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 40
Notes: The Bulls are currently on an 11 game win streak headed into the tournament after breezing through the conference tournament. They’ll face a Louisville team with a familiar face, as Ryan Conwell was a USF Bull last season before transferring to Louisville this offseason. This is Bryan Hodgson’s first season with the Bulls after two seasons at Arkansas State. The Bulls are one of the nation’s top offensive rebound teams in the country but will face a top test against a high powered Louisville offense.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Northern Iowa Panthers
Record: 23-12 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Champs
Quad1: 0-2 Quad2: 4-5 Quad3: 7-5 Quad4: 11-0
Key Wins: (It’s a stretch…) Illinois State Key Losses: Bradley, Valparaiso
Player to watch: Guard Trey Campbell 13.7points/game 3.9assists/game
Head Coach: Ben Jacobson 397-258 record, 4-5 NCAA Tournament Record.
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 153 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Notes: If Northen Iowa sounds familiar, it’s because if you can remember back in 2010, Ben Jacobson led the Panthers to the Sweet 16 that included a win over 1 seed Kansas, so we have definitely seen Northern Iowa can have success in the tournament. Don’t count on that run from this squad. A team that had a 5 game losing streak in January, somehow got hot at the right time and won their way in by winning the MVC Tournament. (Of course, Belmont getting upset early opened the door for the field). This team does defend well, especially on the perimeter and has been really good on the defensive glass. Struggles on the offensive side of the ball and one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the field, just don’t have me believing in another Northern Iowa run, especially facing Rick Pitino right off the bat.
Ceiling: First Round Floor: First Round
- California Baptist Lancers (CA Baptist)
Record: 25-8 Western Athletic Conference Tournament Champions
Quad1: 0-1 Quad2: 2-4 Quad3: 5-3 Quad4: 18-0
Key Wins: Utah Valley(twice) Key Losses: Tarleton State, Utah Tech
Player to watch: Guard Dominique Daniels Jr. 23.2points/game 3.2assists/game
Head Coach: 275-136 record, first NCAA Tournament Appearance
Offensive Efficiency: 191 Defensive Efficiency: 50
Notes: I’ll be honest, as much a force Dominique Daniels has been scoring for the Lancers this season, I have had thoughts about picking them over Kansas due to the circus that has surrounded that team with the Peterson drama. However, I am just not sure Bill Self’s defense is going to let one guy take over and beat them. The Lancers shoot a lot of 3’s and crash the boards offensively well and are very solid defensively. Can the Lancers get enough presence from Johnathon Griman and create outside and dribble opportunities for Daniels?
Ceiling: Sweet 16 Floor: First Round
- North Dakota State Bison
Record: 27-7 Summitt Conference Regular Season and Tournament Champs:
Quad1: 0-0 Quad2: 0-1 Quad3: 5-4 Quad4: 19-2
Key Wins: Southern Illinois Key Losses: UTEP, Denver
Player to watch: Guard DamariWheeler-Thomas 14.4oints/game 3.5rebounds/game
Head Coach: Dave Richman 238-149 record, 1-2 NCAA Tournament Record.
Offensive Efficiency Rank:124 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 124
Notes: I am not going to sugarcoat it, Michigan State should have a field day inside on the Bison. The only path to an upset would be to get Jaxon Kohler in foul trouble and open up things for the Bison inside. They are an extreme longshot, they just don’t shoot the 3 ball well enough to get me excited about upsetting anyone.
Ceiling: First Round Floor: First Round
- Furman Paladins
Record: 22-12 Southern Conference Tournament Champs
Quad1:0-1 Quad2: 0-2 Quad3: 5-5 Quad4:14-4
Key Wins: ETSU Key Losses: The Citadel, UNC Greensboro
Player to watch: Guard Alex Wilkins 17.7points/game 4.7assists/game
Head Coach: Bob Richey 203-93 record, 1-1 NCAA Tournament Record.
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 200 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 181
Notes: Fun fact: Furman is 0-3 against teams in the NCAA Tournament and after they play UConn that will move to 0-4 and it’s not that I like UConn that much. Furman turns the ball over way too much, they are virtually non-existent from 3, and are awful at the foul line. Needless to say, I am not picking Furman to upset UConn.
Ceiling and Floor: First Round
- Siena Saints
Record: 23-11 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament Champs
Quad1: 0-1 Quad2: 0-0 Quad3: 2-6 Quad4:21-4
Key Wins: Merrimack Key Losses: Sacred Heart, Fairfield, St. Peter’s
Player to watch: Guard Gavin Doty 17.9points/game 7.9rebounds/game
Head Coach: Gerry McNamara 37-29 record, first NCAA Tournament Appearance
Offensive Efficiency Rank:210 Defensive Efficiency Rank:175
Notes: A 16 seed has only beaten a 1 seed twice and it’s not going to happen this year. Siena has been very good from the foul line this season and their head coach, Gerry McNamara, won a national championship with Syracuse in 2003 alongside Carmelo Anthony.
SOUTH REGION
- Florida Gators
Record 26-7 SEC Regular Season Champs
Quad1: 12-6 Quad2: 6-1 Quad3: 3-0 Quad4: 5-0
Key Wins: Arkansas, Alabama Key Losses:Auburn
Player to watch: SF Thomas Haugh 17.1points/game 6.2rebounds/game
Head Coach: Todd Golden 159-76 record, 6-2 NCAA Tournament Record, 1 National Championship, 1 Final Four
Offensive Efficiency Rank:9 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Notes: The defending National Champions have more than enough to repeat with the 1-2 punch of Haugh & Condon and maybe my favorite player to watch in basketball right now, Reuben Chinyelu, who does all the dirty work and is so much more important than what the box score sometimes indicates. The question for me is the same one I had to start the season, are Boogie Fland and Xavian Lee good enough in the backcourt. If we see the guard combo that won 12 SEC games in a row, yes they are, but if we see the guard combo that we see in the SEC tournament loss to Vandy, then we start to have some concerns. No with that said, I am still very high on the Gators and like them going deep.
Ceiling: National Championship Floor: Elite 8
- Houston Cougars
Record: 28-6
Quad1: 10-6 Quad2: 9-0 Quad3:3-0 Quad4:6-0
Key Wins: Arkansas, Kansas Key Losses: Tennessee
Player to watch: PG Kingston Flemings 16.4points/game 5.3assists/game
Head Coach: Kelvin Sampson 826-361 record, 31-21NCAA Tournament Record, 3 Final Fours
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 14 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Notes: If you know me, I love Kelvin Sampson coached teams, they put you through 40 minutes of hell, win or lose. I don’t think this team is quite as good as last years’ national championship runner ups, however, they have something that they did not have last year…someone to give the ball to when they’re in a drought offensively and/or when they need a bucket and they have that in freshman, Kingston Flemings. Sharp, Uzan, and Tuggler all return from last year and like Florida, have a great core of guys that made a deep run the previous year. Houston plays defense, values the ball offensively, and has a guard you can turn loose. They check plenty of boxes to cut the nights down. Sneaky flaw…not the best from the foul line, and a potential Sweet 16 matchup against offensive juggernaut, Illinois isn’t the best matchup.
Ceiling: National Championship Floor: Sweet 16
- Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 24-8
Quad1: 7-8 Quad2:5-0 Quad3:7-0 Quad4:5-0
Key Wins: Purdue, (a healthy) Texas Tech Key Losses: Wisconsin (twice)
Player to watch: Guard Keaton Wagler 17.9points/game 4.4assists/game
Head Coach: Brad Underwood 298-136 record, 7-7 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:2 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Notes: I saw Illinois in Nashville play December, and I left there thinking they were the best team I had seen in person in quite a while. They have so many guys that can kill you from deep with Wagler, Mirkovic, Boswell, and even Ivisic can step back there and hit. You throw that in with there league and they can score in a hurry. Their defensive numbers are puzzling, they are really pretty good except in their ability to turn teams over, that number is one of the worst in the entire field. They also seem to have trouble putting teams away and letting them hang around, there’s not really a number to put on that, it’s just a feel you get when you watch them play. I really like Brad Underwood’s squad this year, if we get the matchup with them and Houston in the Sweet 16, it could be the game of the tournament.
Ceiling: Final Four Floor: Sweet 16
- Nebraska Cornhuskers
Record: 26-6
Quad1:9-6 Quad2:6-0 Quad3:5-0 Quad4:6-0
Key Wins: Michigan St, Illinois Key Losses: UCLA
Player to watch: Forward Pryce Sandfort 17.8points/game 4.8rebounds/game
Head Coach: Fred Hoiberg 225-170 record, 4-5 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:55 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Notes:Nebraska has still never won a NCAA Tournament game, I think that ends this season, but you have to know that is in the back of every players’ minds. Maybe that’s good, maybe it’s bad, we will see. Hoiberg has done a great job of regenerating this Nebraska program. When you watch them play, you get a veteran led feel to them, and that is what they are, led by Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort and Rhode Island transfer Jamarques Lawrence, the Cornhuskers are a sound squad that can really get after you on the defensive end, especially on the perimeter. I like their interior offense with Rienk Mast, they are a hot 3point streak away from making some noise.
Ceiling: Sweet 16 Floor: Second Round
- Vanderbilt Commodores
Record: 26-8
Quad1:10-7 Quad2:7-1 Quad3:3-0 Quad4:6-0
Key Wins: Florida, Alabama, St. Mary’s, Tennessee(twice)
Key Losses: Oklahoma
Player to watch: PG Tyler Tanner 19.1points/game, 5.1assists/game
Head Coach:Mark Byington 266-159 record, 1-2NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:7 Defensive Efficiency Rank:31
Notes: People forget that when Vanderbilt had their stretch where they struggled that it was mostly due to that fact that Duke Miles was not healthy. While Tyler Tanner makes it all click, Oklahoma transfer, Duke Miles is their most electric option and can take over any game, making the Tanner/Miles guard combo the most underrated in the country. I don’t love them down low with Washington and Okereke, but I think they have just enough to make a run, and if Tyler Nickel can be the 3 point threat we saw earlier in the season, you better look out!
Ceiling: Elite 8 Floor: Second Round
- North Carolina Tar Heels
Record: 24-8
Quad1:6-8 Quad2:5-0 Quad3:8-0 Quad4:5-0
Key Wins: Duke, Kansas, Kentucky Key Losses: Stanford, California
Player to watch: Forward Henri Veesaar 16.7points/game 8.7rebounds/game
Head Coach: Hubert Davis 125-53 record, 7-3 NCAA Tournament Record, 1 Final Four
Offensive Efficiency Rank:32 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 37
Notes: Unfortunately, due to the injury to Caleb Wilson, this just isn’t the same team that we saw beat Duke on a buzzer beater in what could have been the game of the year. However, this team still has a lot of talent and could make a little noise. Veesaar controls the paint on both sides of the ball and Bogavac can light it up beyond the arc. Their perimeter defense is not good and could potentially be problem in their first matchup against VCU. However the Heels are talented as I said earlier, but their ceiling is limited without Wilson.
Ceiling: Sweet 16 Floor: First Round
- Saint Mary’s Gaels
Record: 27-5
Quad1:1-4 Quad2:8-1 Quad3:10-0 Quad4:7-0
Key Wins: Gonzaga Key Losses:Boise State
Player to watch: Forward Paulius Murauskas 17.7points/game 8.8rebounds/game
Head Coach: Randy Bennett 589-277 record, 7-11NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:43 Defensive Efficiency Rank:19
Notes: The Gaels are really one of the most sound, fundamental basketball teams in the country. One of the best rebounding teams in the country on both sides of the ball and the number 1 free throw shooting team in the country, they do a lot of the little things right. I don’t love their backcourt defensively, but they are still fairly solid. A potential second round matchup with Houston has me worried about matching the Cougars’ physicality, but I really like the Gaels against the Aggies.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Clemson Tigers
Record: 24-10
Quad1:6-6 Quad2:7-4 Quad3:4-0 Quad4:7-0
Key Wins: Louisville, Georgia (OT)
Key Losses: Georgetown, Wake Forest
Player to watch:Forward RJ Godfrey 11.9points/game 5.3rebounds/game
Head Coach: Brad Brownwell 483-291 record, 6-8 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:71 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Notes:One of the more physical teams in the ACC, the Tigers like to slow the tempo and the game down and pound it inside. Their droughts and offensive deficiencies keep me from seeing this team going far. However, I think their game with Iowa will go right down to the wire.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Iowa Hawkeyes
Record: 21-12
Quad1:5-9 Quad2:4-1 Quad3:6-2 Quad4:6-0
Key Wins: Nebraska, UCLA Key Losses:Maryland, Penn State
Player to watch: Gurad Bennett Stirtz 20points/game, 4.5 assists/game
Head Coach: Ben McCollum 447-107 record, 1-1NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:31 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Notes: You have to like what you have seen if you are an Iowa fan from first year head coach Ben McCollum and the Hawkeyes. McCollum brought Bennett Stirtz with him from Drake and he has quickly become one of the best scorers in all of the BigTen. A very balanced team, that is very good at turning teams over, I don’t see the Hawkeyes going far, but I do like them against ClemsonCeiling:Second Round Floor:First Round
- Texas A&M Aggies
Record: 21-11
Quad1:5-8 Quad2:4-3 Quad3:4-0 Quad4:8-0
Key Wins: Kentucky, Georgia Key Losses:Oklahoma State
Player to watch:Forward Rashaun Agee 14.7 points/game, 8.9rebounds/game
Head Coach: Bucky McMillian 120-63 record, 0-1NCAA Tournament Record.
Offensive Efficiency Rank:49 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 41
Notes:Remember going into February when A&M was in first place in the SEC? Feels like forever ago. The Aggies did get an easier break to the start of the SEC schedule but as the competition got better, I think fatigue also played a part of some of the slumps we saw the Aggies dip in. I am still not sure you can run a press for 40 minutes in today’s game. Maybe I am wrong, but I am excited to see if “Bucky Ball” can make a run and how they matchup with Saint Mary’s.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Virginia Commonwealth University Rams (VCU)
Record: 27-7 Atlantic 10 Regular Season Co-Champs & Tournament Champs
Quad1:2-4 Quad2:5-3 Quad3:9-0 Quad4:11-0
Key Wins: South Florida Key Losses: George Mason
Player to watch:Guard Terrence Hill Jr. 14.4points/game, 71 3’s this season
Head Coach: Phil Martelli Jr. 70-32 overall, 0-1 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:46 Defensive Efficiency Rank:60
Notes:Maybe the best opening matchup for a mid-major to take advantage of, VCU is catching a North Carolina team that limped into the tournament without Caleb Wilson. VCU will let it fly from 3point range and ironically, that is the weakest part of UNC’s defense. I don’t think the Rams have enough firepower to get past the first weekend but I really think they can get past the Tar Heels. Lazar Djokovic should be able to matchup down low with Veesaar as well.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- McNeese Cowboys
Record: 28-5 Southland Conference Tournament Champs
Quad1:0-2 Quad2:2-2 Quad3:8-0 Quad4:16-1
Key Wins: George Washington Key Losses: Incarnate Word
Player to watch:Guard Larry Johnson 17.5points/game 5.5rebounds/game
Head Coach:Bill Armstrong 28-5 record, first year HC
Offensive Efficiency Rank:91 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 49
Notes: Riding a 10 game win streak, you would think the Cowboys still had Will Wade at the helm. Bill Armstrong has kept the ball rolling led by freshman Larry Johnson and Tulsa transfer Tyshawn Archie. The Cowboys currently are the best team in the country in defensive turnovers, the bad news is that Vanderbilt is one of the best teams in the country as far as taking care of the basketball, and I don’t think the Cowboys have enough perimeter options to get past the commodores.
Ceiling/Floor: First Round
- Troy Trojans
Record: 22-11 Sun Belt Regular Season and Tournament Champs
Quad1:1-0 Quad2:2-1 Quad3:4-7 Quad4:13-3
Key Wins: Akron Key Losses:West Georgia, JMU, Texas St.
Player to watch:Forward Victor Valdes 14.8points/game, 4.6assists/game
Head Coach: Scott Cross 350-259 record, 0-2 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:141 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 166
Notes:The Trojans move the ball well, feed the post, and like to attack the offensive glass. For any chance against Nebraska, the offense should run through Valdes and his opportunity to make plays off the dribble. Something rare in college hoops these days, all five starters are Troy homegrown.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Penn Quakers
Record: 18-11 Ivy League Tournament Champs
Quad1:0-2 Quad2:1-4 Quad3:6-3 Quad4:10-2
Key Wins: Yale Key Losses:Princeton
Player to watch:Forward Ethan Roberts 16.9points/game, 3.9rebounds/game
Head Coach: Fran McCaffery 565-395 record, 6-12 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:204 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 111
Notes:If your thinking Fran McCaffery sounds familiar, there’s a reason. McCaffery spent the last 15 years at Iowa coaching the Hawkeyes before taking over the Quakers and leading them to the tournament in his first season. While the Quakers are top 15 in 3point shooting, they’re taking a knife to a gunfight against Illinois.
Ceiling/Floor: First Round
- Idaho Vandals
Record: 21-14 Big Sky Tournament Champs
Quad1:0-0 Quad2:0-3 Quad3:9-8 Quad4:9-3
Key Wins: None, but we’ll say Montana State Key Losses:Cal St. Bakersfield, San Diego
Player to watch:Forward Jackson Rasmussen
Head Coach:Alex Pribble 129-94 record, first NCAA Tournament Apperance
Offensive Efficiency Rank:176 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 136
Notes:A middle of the pack Big Sky team that got hot and won their tournament to get in. No offense to them, but they don’t belong and Houston have mercy on their souls! The Vandals are top 5 in defensive rebounding, however, I don’t picture Houston missing that many shots…
Ceiling/floor: First Round
- Prairie View A&M or Leigh
Since we have two possible 16 seeds with the play in game, I figured I’d save you and me some time and tell you all you need to know about both of the two worst ranked teams in the field…Pick Florida!
WEST REGION
- Arizona Wildcats
Record: 32-2 Big 12 Regular Season and Tournament Champs
Quad1:16-2 Quad2:8-0 Quad3:1-0 Quad4:7-0
Key Wins: Houston(twice), Florida, Iowa State(twice), Alabama
Key Losses: Texas Tech (OT)
Player to watch: Guard Brayden Burries 15.9points/game 4.7rebounds/game
Head Coach: Tommy Lloyd 144-35 record, 6-4NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:5 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Notes: The belle of the ball and in my opinion, the best team in the country. They are solid from deep, solid in the paint, protect the paint, and arguably the best on ball defensive team in the country. If they have a weakness, I haven’t found it. The Bradley/Burries Backcourt duo is deadly, Koa Peat down low, and throw in the do-it-all Tobe Awaka coming off the bench. Anything less than a final four would be a disappointment, and they are my pick to cut them down in Indy.
Ceiling: National Championship Floor: Final Four
- Purdue Boilermakers
Record: 27-8 BigTen Tournament Champions
Quad1:11-8 Quad2:6-0 Quad3:7-0 Quad4:3-0
Key Wins: Michigan, Alabama, Nebraska Key Losses:Indiana
Player to watch: Guard Braden Smith 14points/game, 50% from the field
Head Coach: Matt Painter 523-228 record, 24-17 NCAA Tournament Record, 1 Final Four
Offensive Efficiency Rank:1 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 36
Notes: Something clicked in the Big Ten tournament and we saw the Purdue we saw earlier in the season and expected to see all year. With 4 starting seniors led by Smith and Loyer, they are as experienced as anyone in the country. Their offense is a masterpiece, ranking number 1 in almost every metric. Their defense can get them in trouble sometimes, particularly on the interior but plan on nice run from Purdue.
Ceiling: Final Four Floor: Sweet 16
- Gonzaga Bulldogs
Record: 30-3 West Coast Conference Regular Season and Tournament Champs
Quad1:7-2 Quad2:4-0 Quad3:11-1 Quad4:8-0
Key Wins: Alabama, UCLA, St. Mary’s, Santa Clara
Key Losses: Portland
Player to watch:Forward Graham Ike 19.7points/game, 8.2 rebounds/game
Head Coach: Mark Few 772-155 record, 44-25 NCAA Tournament Record, 2 Final Fours
Offensive Efficiency Rank:29 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Notes: Another great team from Mark Few, one of my favorite coaches out there, his teams always play fundamental basketball. This team though, could be Few’s best defensive squad that we have seen come out of Spokane. They rank top 10 overall in defense and top 20 in every defensive category. Ike is one of the best rim protectors in the tournament and if the Zags can find something in their perimeter shooting, the sky is the limit. I do not love their backcourt as compared to years past.
Ceiling: Elite 8 Floor: Sweet 16
- Arkansas Razorbacks
Record: 26-8 SEC Tournament Champs
Quad1:8-8 Quad2:8-0 Quad3:4-0 Quad4:6-0
Key Wins: Vandy(twice), Tennessee, (a healthy) Texas Tech
Key Losses: Auburn, Kentucky
Player to watch: Darius Acuff Jr. 22.9points/game 6.5assists/game
Head Coach: John Calipari 903-285 record, 59-23 NCAA Tournament Record, 1 National Championship, 6 Final Fours
Offensive Efficiency Rank:6 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 48
Notes:If you don’t know the name Darius Acuff yet, you better get to know it. One of the most electric freshman in all of hoops, the SEC Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year could very well be the best guard Calipari has had. Wagner and Meelek Thomas compliment Acuff to make up an excellent backcourt but the frontcourt has been where problems have arose. Though they have size with Brazile and Ewin, I don’t like their physicality and is what I think will be this teams downfall and keep it from a really deep run.
Ceiling: Sweet 16 Floor: Second Round
- Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 24-10
Quad1:9-8 Quad2:4-1 Quad3:5-1 Quad4:6-0
Key Wins: Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State
Key Losses:USC, Oregon
Player to watch:Guard Nick Boyd 20.2points/game 54% from the field
Head Coach:Greg Gard 237-127 record, 7-7NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:11 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 51
Notes: The high flying Badgers have as impressive of a list of great wins as anyone in the country. Coming off a buzzer beater loss to Michigan in the tournament, San Diego State transfer, Nick Boyd continue to show they can play with anyone. I hope we get a second round matchup with the Badgers and Arkansas because they mirror each other so well. Exceptional backcourts with weaker frontcourts, whoever’s bigs have a better game should be the deciding factor and make sure you bet the over. Unfortunately for both, the winner gets to play Arizona so pack your Badger gear but not too heavy.
Ceiling: Sweet 16 Floor: Second Round
- BYU Cougars
Record: 23-11
Quad1: Quad2: Quad3: Quad4:
Key Wins: Wisconsin, Iowa State
Key Losses:Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Player to watch: AJ Dybantsa 25.3 points/game, leading scorer in hoops
Head Coach: Kevin Young 49-21 record, 2-1 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:10 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 57
Notes: I was really looking forward to seeing what this team could do in March before Richie Saunders went down and out for the season but BYU still has the number one scorer in all of basketball, freshman sensation AJ Dybantsa and will be must watch tv in the tournament. I don’t love their draw facing either Will Wade’s NC State or Sean Miller’s Texas right off the bat and I don’t love the Cougars defensively.
Ceiling: Sweet 16 Floor: First Round
- Miami Hurricanes
Record: 25-8
Quad1:6-6 Quad2:6-2 Quad3:3-0 Quad4:10-0
Key Wins: North Carolina Key Losses: California
Player to watch: Forward Malik Reneau 18.8points/game, 6.6rebounds/game
Head Coach:Jai Lucas 25-8 record, first season as HC
Offensive Efficiency Rank:33 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 38
Notes:The most turned around team in hoops from last season to this season as far as win totals, Jai Lucas for sure made the right decision on bringing in Malik Reneau from Indiana. The canes are one of the best rebounding teams in the country and their matchup with Missouri I think is one of the most underrated first round games we have slated.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Villanova Wildcats
Record: 24-8
Quad1:2-6 Quad2:8-1 Quad3:8-1 Quad4:5-0
Key Wins: Seton Hall Key Losses:Creighton, Georgetown
Player to watch: Guard Tyler Perkins 13.7points/game,5.4 rebounds/game
Head Coach: Kevin Willard 359-247 record, 4-7 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:41 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 35
Notes: A disappointing Big East tournament appearance, first season head coach Kevin Willard from Maryland, will hope for a better showing against a really solid Utah State. This is a coin flip game for me, while neither should get past Arizona, Villanova will have to crash the boards better than they have this season to get a win against Utah State.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Utah State Aggies
Record: 28-6 Mountain West Regular Season and Tournament Champs
Quad1:4-4 Quad2:9-1 Quad3:9-1 Quad4:5-0
Key Wins: VCU Key Losses:UNLV (twice)
Player to watch: Guard MJ Collins Jr 17.6 points/game
Head Coach:Jerrod Calhoun 294-158 record, 0-1NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:28 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 45
Notes:While MJ Collins Jr is the Aggies best scorer, the real magic happens down low with Elamin and Keller. Their offense flows best when the ball is worked inside-out. The Aggies rank top 20 in defensive turnovers forced and are rock solid with their interior defense.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Missouri Tigers
Record: 20-12
Quad1:5-7 Quad2:4-5 Quad3:3-0 Quad4:8-0
Key Wins: Florida, Tennessee Key Losses:Notre Dame, Ole Miss
Player to watch:Mark Mitchell 18.3 points/game
Head Coach:Dennis Gates 125-98 record, 1-3 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:50 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 78
Notes: One of the weirdest teams in the field, you just don’t know what you’re going to get each night from Mizzou. We know Duke transfer Mark Micthell can play but can TO Barrett be the offensive threat we saw towards the end of the season? Mizzou has one of the worst perimeter defenses in the country and does not rebound well. I think they can get past Miami but that’s about it.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Texas/NC State
Texas led by Sean Miller, 18-14, offensive efficiency ranks 13th, defensive 112th
NC State led by Will Wade, 20-13 offensive efficiency ranks 20th, defensive 86th
I am leaning toward Texas in this one but it’s a coin flip, however I think both teams should match up well against BYU.
- High Point Panthers
Record: 30-4 Big South Conference Season And Tournament Champs
Quad1:0-0 Quad2:0-2 Quad3:5-2 Quad4:22-0
Key Wins: Winthrop Key Losses:App. State
Player to watch:Forward Terry Anderson 16poins/game
Head Coach:Alan Huss 56-15 record, 0-1NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:66 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 161
Notes: Entering the tournament on the nations longest win streak at 14, High Point and Wisconsin should be a high scoring affair. The Panthers are top 5 in turnovers forced but the Badgers rank very well in taking care of the ball. I know High Point has been a trendy pick and while I think they will score on Wisconsin, I just don’t think they will score enough.
Ceiling/Floor: First Round
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Record: 24-8 Big West Tournament Champs
Quad1:0-0 Quad2:0-4 Quad3:8-2 Quad4:14-2
Key Wins: UC Irvine Key Losses:Long Beach State
Player to watch:Center Issac Johnson 14.1 points/game
Head Coach:Eran Ganot 191-127 record, 1-1 NCAA Tournament record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:211 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 43
Notes:Hawaii is one of the worst in the country in offensive turnovers and will have no answer defensively for Darius Acuff.
Ceiling/Floor: First Round
- Kennesaw State Owls
Record: 21-13 C-USA Tournament Champs
Quad1:0-1 Quad2:0-3 Quad3:6-5 Quad4:12-4
Key Wins: FIU, Liberty Key Losses:UTEP
Player to watch:RJ Johnson 14.5/game
Head Coach:Antoine Pettway 55-43 record, first Tournament Appearance
Offensive Efficiency Rank:143 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 194
Notes: A .500 team in the C-USA, the Owl got hot at the right time in their conference tournament to earn a bid. Unfortunately for this Cinderella, the clock has already struck 12. The Owls do rank top 40 in offensive rebounding.
Ceiling/Floor: First Round
- Queens Royals
Record: 21-13 ASUN Conference Champs
Quad1:0-5 Quad2:0-1 Quad3:2-3 Quad4:18-4
Key Wins:Austin Peay Key Losses:West Georgia
Player to watch:Guard Nasir Mann 13.4points/game
Head Coach: Grant Leonard 73-62, First Tournament Apperance
Offensive Efficiency Rank:77 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 322
Notes:Queens is the worst defensive ranked team in the field. Purdue is the best offensive team in the field. Need I say more?
Ceiling/Floor: First Round
- Long Island Sharks
Record: 24-10 NEC Season and Conference Champs
Quad1:0-2 Quad2:0-2 Quad3:1-3 Quad4:23-3
Key Wins: James Madison Key Losses:New Haven
Player to watch:Guard Jamar Fuller 16.4points/game
Head Coach:Rod Strickland 51-74 record, first Tournament appearance
Offensive Efficiency Rank:239 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 186
Notes:16 vs 1 has only happened twice and it ain’t happening on Arizona’s watch.
Ceiling/Floor: First Round
SOUTH REGION
- Michigan Wolverines
Record: 31-3 BigTen Regular Season Champs
Quad1:17-3 Quad2:5-0 Quad3:6-0 Quad4:3-0
Key Wins: Purdue, Illinois, Michigan St, Gonzaga
Key Losses:Wisconsin
Player to watch:Yaxel Lendeborg 14.6points/game 7rebounds/game
Head Coach: Dusty May 184-82 record, 6-3NCAA Tournament record, 1 Final Four
Offensive Efficiency Rank:8 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Notes: The best frontcourt in basketball led by Lendeborg and Mara, Michigan is another final four or bust one seed. The best defensive team in the country coming off a big ten championship loss to Purdue which is what I call a blessing in disguise. I have seen it happen to many eventual National Champs and it could very well be the recipe for Dusty May’s squad
Ceiling: National Champs Floor: Final Four
- Iowa State Cyclones
Record: 27-7
Quad1:8-7 Quad2:10-0 Quad3:2-0 Quad4:7-0
Key Wins: St. John’s, Houston, Pudue Key Losses:TCU, Cincinnati
Player to watch: Joshua Jefferson 16.9points/game
Head Coach:TJ Otezelberger 221-115 record, 5-6 NCAA Tournament Record.
Offensive Efficiency Rank:21 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Notes:Another great squad from the best conference in the country the Big12, the Cyclones can run into offensive droughts but will play you very physical on the defensive side of the ball and look to one of the best players in the country Joshua Jefferson to carry them deep into the tournament. Look out for a grindout game in the second round against Santa Clara.
Ceiling: Final Four Floor: Second Round
- Virgina Cavaliers
Record: 29-5
Quad1:8-4 Quad2:9-1 Quad3:5-0 Quad4:7-0
Key Wins: Louisville, Miami Key Losses:Butler, Virgina Tech
Player to watch: Guard Malik Thomas 12.4points/game
Head Coach: Ryan Odom 251-132, 1-3 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:27 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Notes: I know Virgina took Duke down to the wire and Ryan Odom has done a tremendous job in year 1,but I’m not as high on the Cavaliers as most. I think they are hoping to not see a physical team like Tennessee in the second round, but that is a big if Tennessee can get there.
Ceiling: Elite 8 Floor: Second Round
- Alabama Crimson Tide
Record: 23-9
Quad1:7-7 Quad2:9-2 Quad3:5-0 Quad4:2-0
Key Wins: Illinois, Arkansas Key Losses:Texas, Ole Miss
Player to watch: Labaron Philon 21.7points/game
Head Coach:Nate Oats 264-115 record, 13-8 NCAA Tournament Record, 1 Final Four
Offensive Efficiency Rank:3 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 67
Notes: I am sure you have seen the Aden Holloway news by now, I think this puts them from a Sweet 16 team to a second round team, let’s be honest, Michigan was going to be too much down low anyway and Philon will not be able carry Holloway’s offensive share along with his, it’s too much to ask.
Ceiling: Sweet 16 Floor: Second Round
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
Record: 22-10
Quad1:7-9 Quad2:5-1 Quad3:7-0 Quad4:3-0
Key Wins: Duke, Houston Key Losses:Arizona St, TCU
Player to watch:Guard Christian Anderson 18.6points/game
Head Coach: Grant McCasland 283-119 record, 4-3 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:12 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 33
Notes: Unfortunately, with JT Toppin going down, the Red Raiders ceiling just isn’t as high as the team we saw beat Duke,but with Aiden Holloway out for Alabama. If the Raiders can get by a sneaky good Akron, a Sweet 16 is within reach. Texas Tech ranks top 5 in 3point shooting.
Ceiling: Sweet 16 Floor: First Round
- Tennessee Volunteers
Record: 22-11
Quad1:6-10 Quad2:6-1 Quad3:3-0 Quad4:7-0
Key Wins: Houston, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Louisville Key Losses:Syracuse
Player to watch:Ja’kobi Gillespie 18points/game
Head Coach: Rick Barnes 858-434 record, 33-28 NCAA Tournament Record, 1 Final Four
Offensive Efficiency Rank:37 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Notes: Well we feel like we know the book on this squad, they’re just a nice basketball team. We hoped to see the team that beat Houston earlier this season but there has never been a consistent 3rd scoring option behind Gillespie and Ament arise. Turnovers and Free throws continue to be an issue and that is a losing combination in the big dance. Vols are 14-1 in games where they shoot 70% or over from the foul line, 8-10 when under.
Ceiling: Sweet 16 Floor: First Round
- Kentucky Wildcats
Record: 21-13
Quad1:5-11 Quad2:7-2 Quad3:3-0 Quad4:6-0
Key Wins: Vandy, St. John’s Key Losses:Missouri, Auburn
Player to watch:Otega Oweh 18.2 points/game
Head Coach:Mark Pope 229-133 record, 2-3 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:39 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Notes:Just like Tennessee fans, UK fans, I’d pack light. This team just can’t seem to make it click over an extended period of time. Oweh has shown flashes but hasn’t been the player we thought he’d be after last year, and Aberdeen is solid but not great, and that’s really the identity of this team solid but not great.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Georgia Bulldogs
Record: 22-10
Quad1:6-7 Quad2:6-2 Quad3:1-1 Quad4:9-0
Key Wins: Arkansas, Alabama Key Losses:Ole Miss
Player to watch: Jeremiah Wilkinson 17points/game
Head Coach:Mike White 320-184 record, 6-4NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:16 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 80
Notes:I really like this Georgia team and the up tempo style that they play, they can really light you fast by getting to the rim off the dribble and via fast break. Their interior is their weakness which will make it hard to make a deep run but I think they could edge out a solid Saint Louis squad.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Saint Louis Billikins
Record: 28-5 A-10 Regular Season Champs
Quad1:2-1 Quad2:6-3 Quad3:6-1 Quad4:13-0
Key Wins: VCU Key Losses:Rhode Island
Player to watch: Robbie Avila 12.9points/game
Head Coach:Josh Schertz 113-60 record, first NCAA Tournament Appearance
Offensive Efficiency Rank:51 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 42
Notes: Robbie Avila has a chance to be a house hold name this March. With his iconic glasses, he can back up his swag with his game. Saint Louis can get very loose with the ball but ranks top 5 in 3 point shooting and I believe Avila will give Georgia fits down low.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Santa Clara Broncos
Record: 26-8
Quad1:2-6 Quad2:6-1 Quad3:10-0 Quad4:7-1
Key Wins: St. Mary’s Key Losses:Loyola Chicago
Player to watch:Guard Christian Hammond 15.8points/game
Head Coach: Herb Sendek 600-423 record, 7-8 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:23 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 82
Notes: My favorite mid-major in the field, with Herb Sendek headed to Providence after this season, the Broncos have a chance to make some serious noise on the way out. I think they matchup very well against Kentucky, its just a shame they’ll run into Iowa State. If you haven’t been watching the WCC conference let me tell you, all three teams are really good teams.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Miami OH or SMU
Miami OH had a historical season going 31-1, offensive efficiency rank 70, defensive efficiency rank 156
SMU, led by Boopie Miller is very dangerous offensively ranking 26th in efficiency and 91st defensively.
I am leaning SMU but if we have seen anything, we know Miami knows how to win close games
- Akron Zips
Record: 29-5 Mid American Conference Tournament Champs
Quad1:0-2 Quad2:0-2 Quad3:11-1 Quad4:16-0
Key Wins: Toledo Key Losses:Troy
Player to watch: Tavari Johnson 70 3’s this season
Head Coach:John Groce 377-224 record, 4-6 NCAA Tournament Record
Offensive Efficiency Rank:54 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 113
Notes: Akron did “steal” a bid by winning the MAC tournament but they are a legit team and could definitely beat Texas Tech. The Zips rank top 15 in shooting and can score with anybody.
Ceiling: Second Round Floor: First Round
- Hofstra Pride
Record: 24-10 Coastal Athletic Association Tournament Champs
Quad1:0-1 Quad2:2-4 Quad3:10-4 Quad4:10-3
Key Wins: Penn Key Losses:Iona
Player to watch:Cruz Davis 20.2 points/game
Head Coach:Speedy Claxton 105-62 record, First Tournament Appearance
Offensive Efficiency Rank:89 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 95
Notes: As cool as it is to have your coach name to be Speedy who actually played at Hofstra, Alabama is just more athletic and better. The Pride are streaky from 3 point land and could the Aden Holloway news be a distraction for the Tide?
Ceiling/Floor: First Round
- Wright State Raiders
Record: 23-11 Horizon League Season and Tournament Champs
Quad1:0-1 Quad2:0-2 Quad3:5-6 Quad4:16-2
Key Wins: Northern Kentucky Key Losses:Cleveland State
Player to watch:Michael Cooper 13.4 points/game
Head Coach: Clint Sargent 38-29 record, First Tournament Appearance
Offensive Efficiency Rank:117 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 193
Notes: As I mentioned earlier, I am not high on Virgina but Wright State is so bad defensively, I think Virgina can play with their food and still be just fine.
Ceiling/Floor First Round
- Tennessee St Tigers
Record: 23-9 OVC Season and Tournament Champs
Quad1:0-2 Quad2:1-0 Quad3:3-1 Quad4:16-6
Key Wins: UNLV Key Losses:Eastern Illinois
Player to watch:Aaron Nkrumah 17.6points/game
Head Coach:Nolan Smith 23-9, first tournament appearance
Offensive Efficiency Rank:173 Defensive Efficiency Rank: 212
Notes:Former Duke star, Nolan Smith, has taken the Tigers to the tournament in his first season at the helm. The Tigers do rank top 25 in turnovers forced but I am not on the hype train. Iowa Sate by a lot.
Ceiling/Floor: First Round
- UMBC Retrievers or Howard Bison
As I mentioned before, breaking down a play in game between two 16 seeds with Michigan waiting patiently would be a waste of brain cells. Not happening!
